Author: ryderr

Tariffs, Trade Shifts, and Business Uncertainty

Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POTUS Politics

Schulz Trade Law founder Michelle Schulz breaks down how U.S. tariffs are reshaping global trade, what “handshake deals” really mean, and why businesses are struggling with enforcement and volatility.

China’s Global Pivot Amid U.S. Tariffs

Michelle Schulz explained that while the U.S. is imposing steep tariffs on Chinese imports, China has adapted by redirecting its exports to other markets. Instead of losing ground, China has strengthened ties with developing economies and the BRICS nations.

“China has been just shifting its exports mainly to other parts of developing Asia, but all around the world, heavily to Latin America… essentially headed to a $1.2 trillion trade surplus, higher than last year’s.”Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POT…

“We’re kind of cutting off China, but we’re seeing China just go make other friends… this is what I’ve seen over the past 20 years, where the U.S. tries to impact China, and China just jumps and works around us.”Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POT…

The Reality of Trump’s “Deals”

President Trump and administration officials have touted new deals with foreign partners, but Schulz cautioned that these are not the same as formal trade agreements. Unlike the detailed negotiations behind agreements like USMCA, many of these current arrangements are vague and lack enforceable details.

“These deals are much less formal. Sometimes they come in the form of only a letter, and they’re not detailed… not dense documents that address rules of origin or labor laws. They’re mainly basic agreements that haven’t been fleshed out yet.”Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POT…

The Confusion and Cost for U.S. Businesses

For U.S. companies, the ever-changing tariff environment has created a storm of uncertainty. Businesses face confusion, price hikes, and growing risks of penalties from enforcement agencies.

“Businesses operating in the U.S. are… confused by the volatility and constant changes. Every time policy shifts, the U.S. businesses have to shift.”Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POT…

“Some companies don’t know what to do, and they’re working on marking up their prices to fill the gap. In some cases, tariffs can be higher than 100%.”Michelle Schulz on SiriusXM POT…

“U.S. Customs and Border Protection is heavy on enforcement… penalties can be as high as two or three times the duties that are owed. In some cases, you end up owing more than the goods were even worth.”

Introduction

As the dust settles from President Trump’s July 30, 2025, Executive Order suspending the de minimis exemption globally—effective August 29 for non-postal shipments—consumers and businesses are grappling with a transformed landscape of online imports. This move, which accelerated the exemption’s repeal from its original 2027 timeline, has led to shipping suspensions from major postal services and a sharp drop in low-value imports, echoing the 75% plunge seen after China’s exemption ended in May.

De Minimis Changes

In a Marketplace article published September 10, 2025, our founder and managing partner, Michelle Schulz, cuts through the chaos. Janet Nguyen’s piece explores how packages under $800 now face duties, punitive tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) ranging 10-50%, and even 50% rates on items like steel and aluminum.

Michelle Schulz highlights the stark realities for shoppers:

“I think people are going to realize that if you order something online, you might not even get it. Customs has said if the correct customs duty is not paid, they will seize it.”

She also reveals the exemption’s prior scale—4 million daily shipments tumbling to 1 million post-China ban—and flags emerging scams via text messages falsely claiming tariff debts.

The article breaks down tariff calculations (percentage-based via the Harmonized Tariff Schedule or flat fees like $80-$200 for six months), shipping options (DDP for seller-paid duties vs. DDU shifting costs to buyers), and red flags like demands for wire transfers or Social Security numbers. Experts like Derrick Kyle of Torres Trade Law and Courtney Griffin of the Consumer Federation of America emphasize verifying fees, retaining records, and disputing unreasonable charges to avoid collections or package destruction.

Introduction

On KMOX Radio this Labor Day, international trade attorney Michelle Schulz, founder of Schulz Trade Consulting, joined the conversation about tariffs, trade deficits, and the future of U.S. trade law. Her insights cut through political soundbites, revealing what tariffs really mean for American businesses and consumers—and how ongoing court battles could change everything.

“Tariffs function like a tax collected at the border. U.S. importers pay first—and most of that cost eventually reaches consumers.”

A common misconception is that foreign governments or manufacturers pay tariffs. Schulz clarified that under U.S. law (Title 19), the importer of record is responsible. If duties aren’t paid, Customs goes after the U.S. importer, not the foreign seller.

Initially, some distributors and retailers tried to shield consumers from price hikes. But as Schulz explained, “it’s becoming less and less sustainable.” Importers now routinely pass costs downstream, and in many cases are “really struggling” to stay competitive.

• Tariffs typically increase landed costs by 10–50%, depending on product and country of origin.
• Importers pay up front at entry, straining cash flow.
• Retailers adjust prices, meaning consumers ultimately feel the squeeze.

“In the beginning, some importers absorbed the costs. But what we’re seeing now is that those costs are being passed on, and in some cases, importers are really struggling.”

Another popular narrative is that tariffs are necessary because other nations have been “ripping off” the U.S. with one-sided trade policies. Schulz agreed this concern “has its point” but noted that the U.S. has run trade deficits for 49 years—hardly a new emergency.

She emphasized that trade relationships are usually structured through formal agreements like the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) or GATT/WTO frameworks. These were voluntarily signed, providing both benefits and obligations.

“We didn’t suddenly get this emergency. We’ve had tariffs imposed on us forever, and now we’re imposing tariffs back. It’s really become a big trade war.”

Schulz also explained that deficits are widely misunderstood. Imports often fuel U.S. production and exports. For instance, foreign inputs are embedded in goods that U.S. companies later sell abroad. And in some cases, tariffs have been levied even when the U.S. has a trade surplus with a partner, as was the case with Brazil, where tariffs were imposed “for political reasons.”

“A trade deficit isn’t automatically a policy failure; it’s often a reflection of supply chains and consumer demand.”

Legal Challenges That Could Rewrite Tariff Authority

The conversation then turned to the courts. Many of the current tariffs were imposed via executive order under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—a Cold War-era statute designed for emergencies, not sweeping trade policy.

Both a lower court and a federal appeals court (in a 7–4 decision) have ruled that these tariffs exceeded presidential authority. The government plans to appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, where the outcome is uncertain.

• Some justices lean toward broad executive power, which could favor the administration.
• Others are strict textualists, and since IEEPA never mentions “tariffs,” they may side with Congress as the rightful authority.

“This could go either way. Some judges may want the executive branch to have this power, although it was originally with Congress.” – Michelle SchulzMichelle Schulz on KMOX Radio, …

If the Supreme Court upholds the lower rulings, several scenarios emerge:

• Refund Opportunities: Importers who preserved their rights could claim refunds on certain tariffs (such as reciprocal and fentanyl-related duties).
• Partial Persistence: Tariffs tied to national security (Sections 301 and 232) would likely remain.
• Uncertainty Window: Tariffs are still in effect through at least October, and the Court could take months to decide.

For importers and exporters, this legal limbo is a call to act—not wait. Schulz recommends:

• Preserving rights: File protests and maintain meticulous entry records.
• Tracking tariff categories: Separate duties paid under IEEPA-based programs from those under Sections 301/232.
• Scenario planning: Model financials under three possibilities—status quo, partial rollback, or refunds.
• Watching timelines: Tariffs remain active until officially lifted, so plan purchase orders accordingly.

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FAQ: Tariffs in Plain English

Do foreign governments pay U.S. tariffs?
No. Duties are collected from the U.S. importer of record.

Are trade deficits proof of unfair trade?
Not necessarily. They often reflect consumer demand and supply-chain integration.

Could my company get a refund if tariffs are struck down?
Possibly—if you preserved your rights through timely protests and documentation.

What tariffs will remain no matter what?
Those tied to national security (Sections 301 and 232) are unaffected by these cases.

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