Holiday Spending Hits Records — But Consumers Are Taking Home Less
Michelle Schulz Explains Why Tariffs Are Driving Up Prices
Trade attorney Michelle Schulz breaks down how tariffs on more than 70 countries, shifting rules, and the end of the de minimis threshold are pushing up prices on toys, clothing, decorations—and even small online orders.
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Record Spending, Smaller Shopping Carts
On KSL Radio, hosts opened with a surprising contrast: despite record-breaking Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers, shoppers are bringing home fewer goods. Prices rose faster than spending — and international trade attorney Michelle Schulz explained why.
“We’ve got tariffs on over 65 countries — I’m thinking it’s over 70 now,” Schulz said. “The tariffs impact a wide variety of industries… and clients who are importers are really struggling to deal with them and either cover the cost or pass it along to their buyers.”
Even though consumers feel like everything is “on sale,” the data shows the opposite: shopping carts are smaller and price tags are higher — a direct consequence of multiple layers of tariffs now baked into supply chain costs.
Toys, Textiles, and Christmas Decorations Are All Going Up
When asked which holiday goods are being hit hardest, Schulz was clear:
“Toys are up there — also clothing and textiles… fashion items have always been subject to slightly high tariffs, but it’s more now,” she explained. “People are buying less. They’re paying more, but they’re buying less.”
Even Christmas decorations — almost all imported from China — are more expensive this year.
Adding to the complexity, companies must track which tariffs apply to which components. Is it the metal? The fabric? The finished good? Schulz said the rapid changes are causing unavoidable errors:
“We’re seeing a lot of mistakes, and I can’t blame them — it’s changing all the time, and it’s difficult to understand how they stack.”
Free Trade Agreements vs. Penalties — and the End of the $800 Rule
The conversation turned to the USMCA agreement. Schulz noted that for some businesses, it has been the only thing saving them:
“I had a client tell me yesterday that the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Free Trade Agreement saved their year,” she said. “If they hadn’t qualified, they wouldn’t have been able to handle the tariffs.”
But not everything qualifies — and attempts to “route” goods through Mexico or Canada without meeting origin rules can backfire.
“That turns into a major problem with customs… and can result in penalties. Transshipments are currently subject to 40% penalties.”
Perhaps the most universal change: The $800 de minimis exemption is effectively gone.
“There’s no $800 threshold anymore,” Schulz warned. “Even low-dollar items are subject to tariffs now… You may see the tariff in your cart, or you may be surprised afterwards.”
Whether you’re importing bulk goods or ordering a $20 toy from overseas, untaxed imports are no longer the norm — and it’s catching consumers off guard.
Tariffs now touch nearly every category of holiday shopping—from toys to textiles to small online orders—and the rules continue shifting.
If your business imports goods of any kind, contact Schulz Trade Consulting today to review classification strategies, avoid penalties, and manage rising tariff exposure during the busiest retail season of the year.
